How to Actually Evaluate a Seattle Condo as an Investment

I talk to investors every week who tell me they’ve “run the numbers” on a Seattle condo. Then I ask them five questions and the whole thesis falls apart. Not because the deal is bad, but because they’re evaluating it wrong.

Most buyers look at condos the way they look at houses. Purchase price, monthly payment, comparable sales. That framework misses everything that actually determines whether a condo is a good investment. A condo is a share in a building. The building’s financial health, policy structure, and market positioning matter just as much as the unit itself, sometimes more.

Here’s how I actually evaluate a condo investment, and the five numbers most people ignore.

The Five Numbers That Actually Matter

1. HOA Fees Relative to What You Get

“Are the HOA fees high?” is the wrong question. The right question is what you’re getting for that money and whether those fees are stable.

A building charging $750/month that includes concierge, pool, fitness center, and a well-funded reserve is a completely different story than a building charging $500/month that deferred its roof replacement for three years. Low fees can be a red flag. It sometimes means the building is underfunding maintenance and you’re going to eat a special assessment later.

Look at the HOA fee per square foot. That normalizes the comparison. In Seattle, anything under $0.80/sqft is lean. Over $1.10/sqft and you need to see real value in the amenities and services.

2. Reserve Fund Health

This is the single most overlooked number in condo investing. What percentage funded is the reserve? Is there a special assessment on the horizon? Has the building already completed major capital projects, or are they still ahead?

A building with 70%+ funded reserves and no pending assessments is a fundamentally different investment than one sitting at 40% with a $15,000 per-unit assessment likely within two years. I dig into the reserve study on every deal. If you skip this step, you’re guessing.

3. Price Per Square Foot Relative to Building Tier

Price per square foot means nothing in isolation. You have to compare it within the building’s tier. A luxury high-rise with concierge service, a pool, and hotel-level finishes operates in a different market than a standard mid-rise with basic amenities. Comparing them side by side is misleading.

Within each tier, price per sqft tells you whether you’re buying at a premium or finding value. The market data dashboard breaks this down by building type and neighborhood so you can see exactly where a specific unit falls relative to its peer set.

4. Rental Cap and Owner-Occupancy Ratio

This affects two things: your ability to get financing and your ability to sell later. If a building is more than 50% rentals, many conventional lenders won’t touch it. That immediately shrinks your future buyer pool to cash buyers and portfolio lenders.

High owner-occupancy generally means better building maintenance, more stable governance, and broader financing options for the next buyer. That’s exit liquidity. That’s real value.

5. Days on Market for That Specific Building

Don’t look at neighborhood averages. Look at how fast units move in the building you’re considering. A building where units sell in 20 days has fundamentally different demand than one where they sit for 90. That gap tells you everything about buyer appetite, pricing accuracy, and how clean your exit will be.

The Cash Flow Reality Check

Let me walk through real numbers. A $550,000 one-bedroom in Belltown. $650/month HOA. You put 20% down, so you’re financing $440,000 at 6.75%. You rent it for $2,800/month.

Here’s the monthly breakdown:

• Mortgage (P&I): ~$2,855
• HOA: $650
• Property tax: ~$380
• Insurance: ~$60
• Total monthly cost: ~$3,945
• Rental income: $2,800
• Monthly cash flow: -$1,145

That’s negative cash flow of over $1,100 per month. And that’s before vacancy, maintenance, and management fees.

Is it a terrible investment? Not necessarily. But you need to understand what you’re actually betting on: appreciation and equity buildup, not monthly income. If someone tells you Seattle condos are “great cash flow investments,” they haven’t done the math. Use the investment calculator to run your own scenarios with real numbers.

The Building Comparison Trap

Two units at the same price point in different buildings can have completely different investment profiles. I see this constantly. A buyer compares a $600K unit in one building against a $600K unit across the street and assumes they’re equivalent options. They’re not.

One building might have strong reserves, moderate HOA fees, and 85% owner-occupancy. The other might have a pending special assessment, higher fees covering deferred maintenance, and a 60% rental ratio that limits financing options. Same price. Completely different risk profile.

Use the building comparison tool to evaluate buildings side by side on the metrics that actually matter. You can also zoom out and compare neighborhoods to see where investment fundamentals are strongest across the city.

Market Context Changes Everything

Investment analysis without market context is just spreadsheet fiction. You need to know what’s happening in inventory levels, absorption rates, and pricing trends for the building type and neighborhood you’re targeting.

Right now, Seattle’s condo market is segmented. Well-run buildings in strong locations continue to hold value and attract buyers. Weaker buildings with governance issues or deferred maintenance are sitting longer and discounting more. The gap is widening, not closing.

The market data dashboard gives you current days on market, price per sqft trends, and inventory levels broken down by building type. Check it before you make an offer, not after.

Buildings I’d Point Investors Toward Right Now

If you ask me where to look today, I’d focus on buildings that combine strong reserves, moderate and stable HOA fees, high owner-occupancy, and consistent resale velocity. A few that check those boxes:

• Insignia Towers in Denny Triangle. 698 units across two towers, built in 2015, strong amenity package with competitive HOA per sqft at $0.88. Scale creates efficiency. Consistent buyer demand.
• Spire in Denny Triangle. Newer construction from 2021, no rental cap, and the lowest HOA per sqft in its class at $0.80. The no-rental-cap policy gives you maximum flexibility.
• Cristalla in Belltown. Established 2005 building with 195 units, full amenity suite, and a track record of stable governance. Belltown location gives you walkability and tenant demand.
• Olive 8 in Downtown. Hotel-services building with a luxury positioning that attracts a specific buyer profile. Higher HOA at $1.02/sqft, but the amenity package and location justify it for the right investment thesis.

Each of these is a different play. Different price point, different risk profile, different type of tenant or future buyer. The right choice depends on your timeline, your capital, and your tolerance for negative cash flow while you wait for appreciation.

The Bottom Line

The best condo investments in Seattle right now are in buildings with strong reserves, moderate HOA fees, and high owner-occupancy. Those three factors predict long-term value better than anything else I’ve seen in 15+ years of selling condos in this market.

Stop evaluating condos like houses. Start evaluating buildings like businesses. Because that’s what they are.

If you want to dig into specific buildings or run real numbers on a deal you’re considering, reach out. That’s exactly what I do.

jeff.reynolds@compass.com